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May 5, 2022

Globally, inflation is likely to be higher and more volatile. Inflation risk, an absent adversary throughout the careers of most investors today, will need to be priced once again, says Ruffer LLP’s Jamie Dannhauser.

In the late 1970s, the world was on the cusp of radical change. The ‘Deflation Machine’ was being born. Deng Xiaoping, having outmanoeuvred Mao Zedong’s preferred successor, began the process of reforming China’s moribund economy. In the West, liberal, free-market ideals were gaining traction, ideals that underpinned the subsequent regime of rapid, disinflationary global growth.

April 21, 2022

Inflation-linked bonds are a key defence in a world of deepening negative real yields, says Jasmine Yeo, investment manager at Ruffer LLP.

What was the real return on the US ten-year bond over the past two years? Flat? Down a little?

Wrong – down a lot. The bedrock of the balanced portfolio has delivered a real return of -20% over the past two years [1].

That’s the worst inflation-adjusted performance since 1981 [2].

Traditional balanced portfolios rely on equities and bonds fulfilling their roles – equities for good times, bonds to cushion the bad. But after a torrid three months for markets, investors are being forced to tear up the rulebook.

April 7, 2022

Events in Ukraine are to be seen, first, through the lens of humanity. Through the lens of finance, Russia’s invasion is having the same effect as Covid-19: it is accelerating trends which are already in place. And those trends are inflationary says Ruffer LLP chairman Jonathan Ruffer.

Events in Ukraine are to be seen, first, through the lens of humanity. Through the lens of finance, Russia’s invasion is having the same effect as Covid-19: it is accelerating trends which are already in place. And those trends are inflationary.

April 4, 2022

The Russia-Ukraine war adds to near-term growth risks for the global economy and will likely keep inflation elevated for longer. While uncertainty is high, equity markets are oversold and should recover if tensions ease in the coming months says Russell Investments’ global head of investment strategy Andrew Pease.

The Russia-Ukraine war adds to near-term growth risks for the global economy and will likely keep inflation elevated for longer. While uncertainty is high, equity markets are oversold and should recover if tensions ease in the coming months says Russell Investments’ global head of investment strategy Andrew Pease.


Key market themes

April 4, 2022

China’s bid for global power, climate change and the transition away from fossil fuels are three of the defining megatrends of our time. Collectively, they promise generational upheaval. But decades of peace and stability have left markets, politics, economies and societies complacent and vulnerable. It’s going to get bumpy says Ruffer LLP investment director Alexander Chartres.

China’s bid for global power, climate change and the transition away from fossil fuels are three of the defining megatrends of our time. Collectively, they promise generational upheaval. But decades of peace and stability have left markets, politics, economies and societies complacent and vulnerable. It’s going to get bumpy says Ruffer LLP investment director Alexander Chartres.

Note: This article was written in late 2021, before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

March 17, 2022

Inflation is running hot, even before wage-price pressures have begun says Ruffer LLP economist Jamie Dannhauser.

Inflation is running hot, even before wage-price pressures have begun says Ruffer LLP economist Jamie Dannhauser.

Central bankers tell us the current burst of inflation will be transitory and workers will not mind the temporary squeeze on their living standards.

In today’s full employment economy, this is not convincing. The implied policy response is flawed, potentially even reckless.

March 3, 2022

Increasing inflation volatility represents the greatest challenge to investors for a generation. A new regime and the collapse of the financial market status quo requires us to reimagine portfolios. No longer can we rely on yesterday’s logic says Ruffer’s chief investment officer Henry Maxey.

Increasing inflation volatility represents the greatest challenge to investors for a generation. A new regime and the collapse of the financial market status quo requires us to reimagine portfolios. No longer can we rely on yesterday’s logic.

“Inflation is the endgame. Just brace for inflation volatility first.”

This was the punchline of my 2021 Ruffer Review article.

February 10, 2022

Private markets can help to future proof your portfolio through responsible investing. Samantha Steele, director of private markets at Russell Investments, dives into the main trends and challenges that investors should consider.

Private markets can help to future proof your portfolio through responsible investing. Samantha Steele, director of private markets at Russell Investments, dives into the main trends and challenges that investors should consider.

January 31, 2022

From Cats to Hamilton, theatre's greatest hits have relied on risky decisions. But, says renowned producer Eleanor Lloyd, what is planned to be the Theatre Returns Fund will allow more innovative productions to be made with less uncertainty for investors.

From Cats to Hamilton, theatre's greatest hits have relied on risky decisions. But, says renowned producer Eleanor Lloyd, what is planned to be the Theatre Returns Fund will allow more innovative productions to be made with less uncertainty for investors.

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