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July 12, 2021

Business families have demonstrated their resilience during the Covid-19 pandemic, but some principals are concerned the storm clouds of inflation are gathering over their roads to recovery.

Business families have demonstrated their resilience during the Covid-19 pandemic, but some principals are concerned the storm clouds of inflation are gathering over their roads to recovery.

June 14, 2021

Chetan Mehta, the angel investing chief strategy and investment officer of Transworld Group, will discuss how venture capital and startups are providing rewarding opportunities for family office investors as chairman of the next Campden Family Connect forum.

Chetan Mehta, the angel investing chief strategy and investment officer of Transworld Group, will discuss how venture capital and startups are providing rewarding opportunities for family office investors as chairman of the next Campden Family Connect forum.

April 28, 2021

Inflation is in the news again. Many prices are rising even before we can physically get out and spend, and governments are pouring vast amounts into the economy.

Inflation is in the news again. Many prices are rising even before we can physically get out and spend, and governments are pouring vast amounts into the economy.

Whichever side of the inflation debate you are on, it makes sense to assess the impact inflation could have on portfolios. Most of today’s investors have never seen meaningful inflation in the whole of their professional careers. So, as we emerge from lockdowns and pent-up demand meets ongoing supply constraints, we consider how different asset classes might fare if inflation does return.

January 21, 2021

Somewhere in a cupboard, I have a set of eight contract notes dated 8 January 1975, when I invested—upwards of £100 per holding!—in a range of UK equities. Reader, I called the bottom of the market—a dangerous thing for a young man to do.

Somewhere in a cupboard, I have a set of eight contract notes dated 8 January 1975, when I invested—upwards of £100 per holding!—in a range of UK equities. Reader, I called the bottom of the market—a dangerous thing for a young man to do.

November 18, 2020

The future looks even more uncertain than usual. Normally uncertainty translates into lower asset prices. But not this time. And with the prices of all assets buoyed by abundant liquidity, we fear a traditional ‘diversified’ portfolio is not going to be much protection in the next market convulsion.

The future looks even more uncertain than usual. Normally uncertainty translates into lower asset prices. But not this time. And with the prices of all assets buoyed by abundant liquidity, we fear a traditional ‘diversified’ portfolio is not going to be much protection in the next market convulsion.

In particular, we believe that conventional bonds will provide neither acceptable returns in good times, nor much protection in a downturn.

October 21, 2020

The coronavirus pandemic has hit public finances like a war. Across the world governments have scrambled to offset the economic and social impact of the virus. Huge, and necessary, rises in public spending have pushed government deficits to levels not seen since the two world wars of the 20th century.

The coronavirus pandemic has hit public finances like a war. Across the world governments have scrambled to offset the economic and social impact of the virus. Huge, and necessary, rises in public spending have pushed government deficits to levels not seen since the two world wars of the 20th century.

The numbers are enormous: UK government debt now tops £2 trillion (1). whilst the US owes an eye watering $26 trillion (2). The picture is similar across Europe with many other countries also seeing debt/GDP ratios rising to over 100% (3).

September 29, 2020

The past decade has been one of the most successful investment decades in history: US stocks rose by an average of 248%, the US real estate market by 200%, and gold as a “safe haven” climbed by 40%. The loose monetary policy as a result of the financial crisis has certainly contributed a great deal to this trend, as alternatives such as saving accounts or life insurance are simply no longer an option in times of low interest rates and increased monetary supply.

Monetary policy and a very successful investment decade

The past decade has been one of the most successful investment decades in history: US stocks rose by an average of 248%, the US real estate market by 200%, and gold as a “safe haven” climbed by 40%. The loose monetary policy as a result of the financial crisis has certainly contributed a great deal to this trend, as alternatives such as saving accounts or life insurance are simply no longer an option in times of low interest rates and increased monetary supply.

April 9, 2020

The era of monetary dominance is over. Helicopter money signals investment regime changes ahead.

The era of monetary dominance is over. Helicopter money signals investment regime changes ahead.

It was the avalanche we have long feared. From record peak to bear market, the S&P fell faster during the ‘corona crash’ than ever before, as the chart below shows.

At peak turmoil, conventional offsets (bonds, gold) proved flaky friends: investors sold what they could, not what they perhaps should. Specialist crash protections allowed Ruffer portfolios to hold their ground.

April 1, 2020

When the elements speak, elemental forces are unleashed, and it is important, in the middle of this storm, to capture the right tone of voice. Any false attempt to give reassurance, to boast about early success, to bury oneself in clichés, is unhelpful—even worse, it is historic: by the time these words are read, events will have unfolded which make them, as the CD music reviews have it, ‘Of historic interest only’. We are a long way from terra firma; at the time of writing, it’s a case of ‘so far, so good’. If this were a tennis match, all we could say is that we’ve had a decent first set.

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