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economics

March 31, 2021

Vaccines and US stimulus have the global economy on track for a strong rebound in the second half of the year. We expect the reopening trade to favour equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-US stocks over US stocks.

Vaccines and US stimulus have the global economy on track for a strong rebound in the second half of the year. We expect the reopening trade to favour equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-US stocks over US stocks.

Key market themes

March 31, 2021

The death of inflation has been greatly exaggerated. Its return will first scare, then maim, then ruin the traditional balanced portfolios have that served investors well for a generation. Investors need to prepare for a world of greater inflation volatility. And with it a monumental risk—bonds and equities falling in tandem.

The death of inflation has been greatly exaggerated. Its return will first scare, then maim, then ruin the traditional balanced portfolios have that served investors well for a generation. Investors need to prepare for a world of greater inflation volatility. And with it a monumental risk—bonds and equities falling in tandem.

Investors’ great fear

March 5, 2021

The Chancellor laid out a supportive package of measures to help businesses, while having one eye on a longer-term plan to balance public finances. Despite recent speculation about changes to Inheritance Tax, Capital Gains Tax, and the introduction of a Wealth Tax, the current thresholds have been maintained for the time being.

The Chancellor laid out a supportive package of measures to help businesses, while having one eye on a longer-term plan to balance public finances. Despite recent speculation about changes to Inheritance Tax, Capital Gains Tax, and the introduction of a Wealth Tax, the current thresholds have been maintained for the time being.

December 21, 2020

The author of a new book on international attitudes to the rich warns the wealthy are already being called on to pay for the coronavirus pandemic and are a minority in danger of being scapegoated.

The author of a new book on international attitudes to the rich warns the wealthy are already being called on to pay for the coronavirus pandemic and are a minority in danger of being scapegoated.

December 18, 2020

What is the role of private markets in the midst of the coronavirus? As the investment environment continues to evolve while investors adapt to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, we believe that private assets will play an increasingly important strategic role in fortifying portfolios over the long term, and that the current landscape provides compelling opportunities.

What is the role of private markets in the midst of the coronavirus? As the investment environment continues to evolve while investors adapt to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, we believe that private assets will play an increasingly important strategic role in fortifying portfolios over the long term, and that the current landscape provides compelling opportunities.

December 2, 2020

How do attitudes towards the rich differ in the United Kingdom, France, Germany and the United States? The wealthy and ultra-wealthy are increasingly the targets of criticism and, as often in history, they become scapegoats for negative social developments, says renowned German author and journalist Rainer Zitelmann.

How do attitudes towards the rich differ in the United Kingdom, France, Germany and the United States? The wealthy and ultra-wealthy are increasingly the targets of criticism and, as often in history, they become scapegoats for negative social developments, says renowned German author and journalist Rainer Zitelmann.

June 9, 2020

World order has never been so complex for investors. The US and China have entered a new phase of long-term strategic global competition. America has moved decisively from engagement to containment of China’s technological, economic and military power. Globalisation has created new arenas for renewed ‘Great Power’ competition: financial markets; cyber and outer space; technology; the corporate world. As world order bifurcates, investors are on the front line. 

World order has never been so complex for investors. The US and China have entered a new phase of long-term strategic global competition. America has moved decisively from engagement to containment of China’s technological, economic and military power. Globalisation has created new arenas for renewed ‘Great Power’ competition: financial markets; cyber and outer space; technology; the corporate world. As world order bifurcates, investors are on the front line.

April 20, 2020

After the first wave of the Covid-19 outbreak in China and East Asia, and the second wave in Western Europe and North America, a third wave now looks to be building in several Emerging Markets (EM) and frontier countries, says Amundi Asset Management. EM and frontier countries may be able to benefit from the experiences and best practices then put in place in countries affected by the pandemic earlier. However, most of them do not have well-equipped health systems and lack the resources to deal with a health emergency vs developed countries. Covid-19 will have very significant negative effects on the economic outlooks for EM, mostly leading to recessions.

After the first wave of the Covid-19 outbreak in China and East Asia, and the second wave in Western Europe and North America, a third wave now looks to be building in several Emerging Markets (EM) and frontier countries, says Amundi Asset Management.

April 1, 2020

When the elements speak, elemental forces are unleashed, and it is important, in the middle of this storm, to capture the right tone of voice. Any false attempt to give reassurance, to boast about early success, to bury oneself in clichés, is unhelpful—even worse, it is historic: by the time these words are read, events will have unfolded which make them, as the CD music reviews have it, ‘Of historic interest only’. We are a long way from terra firma; at the time of writing, it’s a case of ‘so far, so good’. If this were a tennis match, all we could say is that we’ve had a decent first set.

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