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April 4, 2022

With a family line that dates to the year 1000, Octavian Pilati learnt from an early age the weight and importance of legacy. But when a crisis saw him taking over the family business at the age of 26 and subsequently shepherding a successful exit, he saw an opportunity to break out on his own and advise others of the pitfalls of fractured family dynamics and unclear succession planning.

With a family line that dates to the year 1000, Octavian Pilati learnt from an early age the weight and importance of legacy. But when a crisis saw him taking over the family business at the age of 26 and subsequently shepherding a successful exit, he saw an opportunity to break out on his own and advise others of the pitfalls of fractured family dynamics and unclear succession planning.

February 15, 2022

Inflation volatility is coming says Ruffer LLP’s investment director Duncan MacInnes.

Inflation volatility is coming says Ruffer LLP’s investment director Duncan MacInnes.

Inflation is at a 40-year high. Given Ruffer has warned against rising inflation for some time, you might be forgiven for thinking we’ve cracked open the fancy (chocolate-covered) biscuits.

Unfortunately, we cannot rest upon our laurels. Because, ironically, now inflation is perceived as a problem, we can rest assured it will soon appear ‘Transitory’. But appearances can be deceptive.

January 24, 2022

Financial conditions have never been so accommodative says Ruffer LLP’s investment director Duncan MacInnes.

Financial conditions have never been so accommodative says Ruffer LLP’s investment director Duncan MacInnes.

Omicron or not, the US economy is booming. The cocktail of pent-up animal spirits, household net worth at all-time highs plus hefty measures of monetary and fiscal stimulus is a potent one. The Atlanta Federal Reserve ‘NowCast’ has US Q4 real GDP at 7%; add 6% CPI inflation and you get a 13% nominal growth rate [1]. The growth picture is similar in Europe and the UK. One would have to go back 50 years to find a similar surge.

January 17, 2022

Resources for bespoke wealth management and responsible governance strategies are in growing demand from restructuring family offices in their pursuit of new investment opportunities in new markets.

Resources for bespoke wealth management and responsible governance strategies are in growing demand from restructuring family offices in their pursuit of new investment opportunities in new markets.

January 12, 2022

When I was on honeymoon in Venice, I spotted a pair of Chinese dragons, one chewing a toenail and the other picking its nose. Smart shop, Grand Canal – my wife Jane and I set an upper limit on what we’d pay. We later walked out with the dragons having written a cheque for slightly over four times our upper limit.

When I was on honeymoon in Venice, I spotted a pair of Chinese dragons, one chewing a toenail and the other picking its nose. Smart shop, Grand Canal – my wife Jane and I set an upper limit on what we’d pay. We later walked out with the dragons having written a cheque for slightly over four times our upper limit.

December 1, 2021

Investors have divided into two camps. Those who believe inflation will subside and the rise in prices will prove temporary. And others who fear we are entering a period of high sustained inflation reminiscent of the 1970s. We consider both scenarios unlikely.

Investors have divided into two camps. Those who believe inflation will subside and the rise in prices will prove temporary. And others who fear we are entering a period of high sustained inflation reminiscent of the 1970s. We consider both scenarios unlikely.

Overlay the bottom chart below and you would be forgiven for believing that we are now on the same trajectory as we were 50 years ago. There are parallels but to assume the economy will meet the same inflationary fate would be a grave mistake for investors.

October 15, 2021

In the 26 years that Ruffer LLP has been in existence, a clear pattern has emerged. When the market mood is either complacent or ebullient, equity indices tend to rise strongly, and we lag behind them. An ‘unexpected’ crisis then hits, and Ruffer quickly recovers lost ground.

In the 26 years that Ruffer LLP has been in existence, a clear pattern has emerged. When the market mood is either complacent or ebullient, equity indices tend to rise strongly, and we lag behind them. An ‘unexpected’ crisis then hits, and Ruffer quickly recovers lost ground.

September 24, 2021

Devansh Jain, the next generation entrepreneur of the Inox Group family business in India, says family enterprises have proven themselves quick to adapt and lead in the Covid-19 crisis and will play an increasingly important role in co-investing in emerging asset classes.

Devansh Jain, the next generation entrepreneur of the Inox Group family business in India, says family enterprises have proven themselves quick to adapt and lead in the Covid-19 crisis and will play an increasingly important role in co-investing in emerging asset classes.

July 13, 2021

We have been talking of inflation for well over a decade—which is not the same thing as calling its timing. An impasse was created by the failure of the economy to grow after the 2008 crisis—all the risks (as we patiently explained) were deflationary, and in vain did the central banks and governments try to force an inflationary impulse into a sluggish world. Their primary weapon? An invention, deployed on a grand scale—quantitative easing (QE to its friends).

I am writing this just before a US inflation report which, to quote Bloomberg, “May provide clues on the monetary-policy outlook; S&P futures were little changed, as were European stocks [awaiting] the next policy statement from the European Central Bank…”

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