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Market Insight

May 20, 2022

Financial markets – with their twists and turns and unknowability – remind us just how hard it is to predict the future and just how wonderful perfect foresight would be, says Ruffer LLP’s Duncan MacInnes.

In the Back To The Future trilogy, the bad guy is a bully called Biff Tannen.

The megalomaniac mogul amassed his wealth because his older self travelled back in time to give his younger self the Grays Sports Almanac, a compilation of every sports result from 1950 to 2000. So Biff was able to earn a spectacular fortune from sports betting.

Financial markets – with their twists and turns and unknowability – remind us just how hard it is to predict the future and just how wonderful perfect foresight would be.

May 5, 2022

Globally, inflation is likely to be higher and more volatile. Inflation risk, an absent adversary throughout the careers of most investors today, will need to be priced once again, says Ruffer LLP’s Jamie Dannhauser.

In the late 1970s, the world was on the cusp of radical change. The ‘Deflation Machine’ was being born. Deng Xiaoping, having outmanoeuvred Mao Zedong’s preferred successor, began the process of reforming China’s moribund economy. In the West, liberal, free-market ideals were gaining traction, ideals that underpinned the subsequent regime of rapid, disinflationary global growth.

March 17, 2022

Inflation is running hot, even before wage-price pressures have begun says Ruffer LLP economist Jamie Dannhauser.

Inflation is running hot, even before wage-price pressures have begun says Ruffer LLP economist Jamie Dannhauser.

Central bankers tell us the current burst of inflation will be transitory and workers will not mind the temporary squeeze on their living standards.

In today’s full employment economy, this is not convincing. The implied policy response is flawed, potentially even reckless.

March 3, 2022

Increasing inflation volatility represents the greatest challenge to investors for a generation. A new regime and the collapse of the financial market status quo requires us to reimagine portfolios. No longer can we rely on yesterday’s logic says Ruffer’s chief investment officer Henry Maxey.

Increasing inflation volatility represents the greatest challenge to investors for a generation. A new regime and the collapse of the financial market status quo requires us to reimagine portfolios. No longer can we rely on yesterday’s logic.

“Inflation is the endgame. Just brace for inflation volatility first.”

This was the punchline of my 2021 Ruffer Review article.

January 17, 2022

Resources for bespoke wealth management and responsible governance strategies are in growing demand from restructuring family offices in their pursuit of new investment opportunities in new markets.

Resources for bespoke wealth management and responsible governance strategies are in growing demand from restructuring family offices in their pursuit of new investment opportunities in new markets.

December 11, 2021

Family offices in Asia-Pacific are fostering a newly energised enthusiasm for investments in the $1.9 trillion cryptocurrency market, ahead of European and North American counterparts, buoyed by pandemic-defying increases in wealth over the past 12 months.

Family offices in Asia-Pacific are fostering a newly energised enthusiasm for investments in the $1.9 trillion cryptocurrency market, ahead of European and North American counterparts, buoyed by pandemic-defying increases in wealth over the past 12 months.

December 8, 2021

There is careful planning involved at every stage of the business life-cycle, such as launching new product lines, entering new markets and moving into adjacent industries. An owner-managed business would be adept at managing such transitions, and the rigorous planning that precedes them.

There is careful planning involved at every stage of the business life-cycle, such as launching new product lines, entering new markets and moving into adjacent industries. An owner-managed business would be adept at managing such transitions, and the rigorous planning that precedes them.

Why is it then, that a different logic should apply when faced with the question of planning for succession to the family business?

November 25, 2021

Our annual ESG manager survey of active managers assesses the integration of ESG considerations in investment processes among equity, fixed income and private market managers and spotlights firmwide policies, use of data, engagement and integration.

Our annual ESG manager survey of active managers assesses the integration of ESG considerations in investment processes among equity, fixed income and private market managers and spotlights firmwide policies, use of data, engagement and integration.

Climate risk takes front and centre stage

November 22, 2021

When our institutional clients want to talk with us about return-seeking strategies, the conversation most often turns to private markets. No surprise. An increasing amount of capital formation and access to growth and income opportunities occur in the private markets.

When our institutional clients want to talk with us about return-seeking strategies, the conversation most often turns to private markets. No surprise. An increasing amount of capital formation and access to growth and income opportunities occur in the private markets.

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