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October 20, 2020

The coronavirus pandemic has hit public finances like a war. Across the world governments have scrambled to offset the economic and social impact of the virus. Huge, and necessary, rises in public spending have pushed government deficits to levels not seen since the two world wars of the 20th century.

The coronavirus pandemic has hit public finances like a war. Across the world governments have scrambled to offset the economic and social impact of the virus. Huge, and necessary, rises in public spending have pushed government deficits to levels not seen since the two world wars of the 20th century.

The numbers are enormous: UK government debt now tops £2 trillion (1). whilst the US owes an eye watering $26 trillion (2). The picture is similar across Europe with many other countries also seeing debt/GDP ratios rising to over 100% (3).

October 20, 2020

Transatlantic relations will be completely different depending on who becomes the next president. It is less US fiscal policy—which would be expansionary in any case—then international relations that are at stake for the next four years. For both Europe and China, the results of the US presidential election will be as important as for the United States.

October 13, 2020

The volatility throughout this global pandemic has served as a blunt reminder of the vulnerability of our financial system to global shocks. Having spent 35 years in the private equity space, I have witnessed numerous economic cycles, but this downturn appears to be unique.

The volatility throughout this global pandemic has served as a blunt reminder of the vulnerability of our financial system to global shocks. Having spent 35 years in the private equity space, I have witnessed numerous economic cycles, but this downturn appears to be unique.

As we move further along the dreaded “second wave”, the main issue paralysing the finance sector is uncertainty. Concern over when consumer and investor confidence will return is widespread—and unfortunately, there is no immediate end in sight.

October 11, 2020

As one of the defining challenges of this generation, climate change is not just an environmental concern, but also an economic one. Already, it’s changing how businesses operate, governments regulate, and individuals consume. It’s no surprise, then, that certain climate factors will ultimately influence which investments turn out to be successful—and which do not.

As one of the defining challenges of this generation, climate change is not just an environmental concern, but also an economic one. Already, it’s changing how businesses operate, governments regulate, and individuals consume. It’s no surprise, then, that certain climate factors will ultimately influence which investments turn out to be successful—and which do not.

May 27, 2020

The European Leveraged Loans market—like other credit markets—suffered from a sudden and indiscriminate market price decrease at the beginning of the Covid-19 crisis in March, mainly resulting from lack of liquidity across all sub-investment markets and concerns about future rating downgrades and increased probability of defaults.

The European Leveraged Loans market—like other credit markets—suffered from a sudden and indiscriminate market price decrease at the beginning of the Covid-19 crisis in March, mainly resulting from lack of liquidity across all sub-investment markets and concerns about future rating downgrades and increased probability of defaults.

May 14, 2020

After closing one of the worst quarters ever for equity markets, Q2 started on a high note, with indices (S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 600) recovering markedly from the bottom hit during the previous month. According to Amundi Asset Management, there is clearly a battle between bull and bear forces taking place.

After closing one of the worst quarters ever for equity markets, Q2 started on a high note, with indices (S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 600) recovering markedly from the bottom hit during the previous month. According to Amundi Asset Management, there is clearly a battle between bull and bear forces taking place.

April 29, 2020

Duncan MacInnes, investment director, discusses Covid-19: how it has changed the investment landscape, the impact on the Ruffer portfolio and what could happen next.

Duncan MacInnes, investment director, discusses Covid-19: how it has changed the investment landscape, the impact on the Ruffer portfolio and what could happen next.

This is the first episode of a new series of podcasts, where Ruffer will be exploring the investment universe and sharing their interpretation of what’s going on.

“It’s our view that we are moving through an economic regime change,” MacInnes (pictured) said.

April 20, 2020

After the first wave of the Covid-19 outbreak in China and East Asia, and the second wave in Western Europe and North America, a third wave now looks to be building in several Emerging Markets (EM) and frontier countries, says Amundi Asset Management. EM and frontier countries may be able to benefit from the experiences and best practices then put in place in countries affected by the pandemic earlier. However, most of them do not have well-equipped health systems and lack the resources to deal with a health emergency vs developed countries. Covid-19 will have very significant negative effects on the economic outlooks for EM, mostly leading to recessions.

After the first wave of the Covid-19 outbreak in China and East Asia, and the second wave in Western Europe and North America, a third wave now looks to be building in several Emerging Markets (EM) and frontier countries, says Amundi Asset Management.

April 1, 2020

When the elements speak, elemental forces are unleashed, and it is important, in the middle of this storm, to capture the right tone of voice. Any false attempt to give reassurance, to boast about early success, to bury oneself in clichés, is unhelpful—even worse, it is historic: by the time these words are read, events will have unfolded which make them, as the CD music reviews have it, ‘Of historic interest only’. We are a long way from terra firma; at the time of writing, it’s a case of ‘so far, so good’. If this were a tennis match, all we could say is that we’ve had a decent first set.

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